<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Education and Economics]]></title><description><![CDATA[News and Research on Education and Economics]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fnxH!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fharryapatrinos.substack.com%2Fimg%2Fsubstack.png</url><title>Education and Economics</title><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:13:27 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[harryapatrinos@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[harryapatrinos@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[harryapatrinos@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[harryapatrinos@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[The skills that matter in the race between education and technology 2.0]]></title><description><![CDATA[In 2017, I asked what skills would matter as robots increasingly automated work.]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/the-skills-that-matter-in-the-race</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/the-skills-that-matter-in-the-race</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 19 Aug 2026 11:09:01 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><span>In </span><a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/education/skills-matter-race-between-education-and-technology"><span>2017</span></a><span>, I asked what skills would matter as robots increasingly automated work. Nine years later, the question is no longer hypothetical. Generative AI can write, code, analyze data, translate, tutor, and perform tasks once thought safely within the domain of highly educated workers.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>This is the latest chapter in what economists &#8211; such as Jan </span><a href="https://repub.eur.nl/pub/8084/1974Kyklos.pdf"><span>Tinbergen</span></a><span>, and Claudia </span><a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674035300"><span>Goldin and Lawrence Katz</span></a><span> have long called the race between education and technology. Technological advances increase the demand for skills; education systems struggle to keep up. Race 1.0 was largely about whether education could produce enough skilled workers. Race 2.0 is also about whether education can produce the right mix of skills &#8211; and continually update them &#8211; faster than technology changes work.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>What should education systems teach when machines can perform an expanding range of cognitive tasks?</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Since 2017, there has been a lot of research on the potential and actual effects of technology, including AI, on employment, skills, and earnings. The question is not simply whether AI destroys jobs. Technology changes tasks within occupations, </span><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37440646/"><span>substitutes</span></a><span> for some kinds of work while </span><a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/140/2/889/7990658"><span>complementing</span></a><span> others and can affect productivity and wages even when employment remains intact. This is particularly challenging because education systems are notoriously slow to change what and how they teach.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The World Bank&#8217;s World Development Report 2026, </span><em><a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2026"><span>The Promise of Artificial Intelligence</span></a></em><span>, argues that developing countries can harness AI for economic growth, but only if they build the capabilities needed to use it while managing the risks of a widening digital divide. Interestingly, its conclusions about skills substantially resemble the argument I made in 2017. Back then I argued that an alternative approach is to think about the kind of work that technology cannot replace. Today the emphasis is on broad digital literacy, adaptability and core human capabilities rather than simply specialized coding: the ability to apply AI, solve complex problems, exercise judgment and work effectively with other people.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>In 2017, I argued that the critical skills needed were:</span></p><ul><li><p><span>Problem solving and critical thinking: particularly evaluating information, identifying errors, asking good questions, and exercising judgment. AI arguably increases the return to these </span><a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/118/4/1279/1925105"><span>abilities</span></a><span> </span><a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/694106"><span>because</span></a><span> generating an answer becomes cheap while determining whether it is a good answer remains difficult</span></p></li><li><p><span>Learning and adaptability: the capacity to acquire new skills as </span><a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/11/oecd-digital-economy-outlook-2024-volume-2_9b2801fc.html"><span>technology</span></a><span> changes tasks and occupations</span></p></li><li><p><span>Communication: reading, writing, explaining, persuading, and interpreting information. AI makes strong </span><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/001979391406700202"><span>communication</span></a><span> skills more, not less, valuable</span></p></li><li><p><span>Self-management: persistence, reliability, initiative, judgment, and the ability to work </span><a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.3.1.101"><span>independently</span></a></p></li><li><p><span>Social and interpersonal skills: </span><a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/132/4/1593/3861633"><span>teamwork</span></a><span>, leadership, negotiation, empathy, management</span></p></li></ul><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>To this list I would add:</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>&#183; Foundational skills: </span><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03323-7"><span>literacy</span></a><span>, numeracy, and increasingly </span><a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/12/do-adults-have-the-skills-they-need-to-thrive-in-a-changing-world_4396f1f1.html"><span>digital/AI literacy</span></a><span>. These are prerequisites rather than competitors to higher-order skills.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The technology has changed dramatically. The skills that complement it have changed much less.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The evidence for such skills has grown considerably over time. But recognizing which skills matter is easier than reforming education systems to produce them. To make the challenge even more profound, many students aren&#8217;t getting the basic skills early on. I don&#8217;t mean coding and complex problem solving; I mean reading and math. An estimated </span><a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/06/23/70-of-10-year-olds-now-in-learning-poverty-unable-to-read-and-understand-a-simple-text"><span>70 percent of 10-year-olds</span></a><span> in low- and middle-income countries cannot read and understand a simple text. And this is not just a developing-country problem: </span><a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/pisa-2022-results-volume-i_53f23881-en.html"><span>one in four 15-year-olds across OECD countries is a low performer</span></a><span> in mathematics, reading and science. At precisely the moment when workers need sophisticated problem-solving, adaptability, and judgment, education systems are still struggling to ensure that children master the basics.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>So, what did we recommend in 2017 &#8211; and would I change it today?&#8221;:</span></p><ol><li><p><span>Assessment: &#8220;Countries that are unable to determine where their education system stands currently will find it difficult to make improvements or to reach their goals.&#8221; That remains true, but assessment should tell us not only whether students possess foundational knowledge but whether they can apply it. Mississippi&#8217;s literacy reforms offer a useful example: assessment identifies struggling readers early enough for schools to intervene rather than waiting until failure becomes entrenched.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Autonomy: &#8220;Empowering schools will support quality improvements.&#8221;</span> <span>Technology changes too rapidly for ministries or state departments to prescribe every instructional response centrally. Give schools and teachers room to experiment &#8211; but within a framework of measured outcomes and accountability. And we should distinguish between unstructured technology use and purposeful instructional use. Phones can be distracting while AI can simultaneously be a powerful instructional tool. Estonia, one of the world&#8217;s highest-performing education systems, has long combined strong foundational learning with extensive use of digital technology.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Accountability: &#8220;Accountability increases time on task and academic achievement.&#8221; Autonomy without accountability risks becoming permission to fail students. Accountability without autonomy risks becoming compliance. Accountability also requires information. Students need information about what skills employers value, what education pathways lead to which outcomes, and what different credentials actually pay. Schools need information about student learning. Teachers need information about what works. Policymakers need information about outcomes.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Attention to teachers: &#8220;&#8230;a good teacher&#8230;can be effective in helping students to improve their learning out&#173;comes.&#8221; AI increases rather than eliminates the importance of excellent teachers because teachers determine how technology is used. Singapore is a natural example because of selective recruitment, training, career development, and professionalization.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Attention to early childhood development (ECD): if later adaptability depends on foundational cognitive and socioemotional skills, we cannot wait until workers enter the labor market to develop them. The race between education and technology starts early.</span></p></li><li><p><span>Attention to personalization: Students have different learning needs and different starting points. Education needs to meet students where they are. Doing that individually was prohibitively expensive in the past. </span><a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20171112"><span>Technology makes it increasingly possible</span></a><span>. AI potentially changes the production technology of education itself. Instead of designing schooling around an imaginary average student, technology can help diagnose what individual students know, adjust difficulty, provide immediate feedback, translate material, and give teachers information about who needs help. But personalization should be teacher-enabled rather than technology-led.</span></p></li></ol><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Nine years later, I would change some of the details of what I wrote, but not the basic prescription. Education systems need to know whether students are learning. Schools and teachers need enough autonomy to adapt as technology changes. That autonomy needs to be accompanied by accountability for results. We need excellent teachers, strong early-childhood development, and much greater capacity to personalize learning.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Above all, we need to stop treating the skills of the future as something separate from the skills students should already be learning. Reading, mathematics, critical thinking, communication, adaptability, judgment, and the ability to work with others are not old-fashioned skills made obsolete by AI. They are precisely the skills that allow people to use AI rather than be displaced by it.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The robots did come. Now AI has arrived too. The question is no longer whether technology will change work. It is whether education can change fast enough to keep up.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><em><span>A follow up to a </span><a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/education/skills-matter-race-between-education-and-technology"><span>blog</span></a><span> published on March 1, 2017, and a </span><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Global_20160720_Blum_Patrinos.pdf"><span>paper</span></a></em><span> </span><em><span>under the same title as the blog for the Brookings Blum Roundtable.</span></em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Education Pays in Arkansas]]></title><description><![CDATA[New Research Published]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/education-pays-in-arkansas</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/education-pays-in-arkansas</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 19:04:56 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Education Pays in Arkansas&#8212;New Research Published</h2><p>I am m pleased to share that my new paper (with Angelica Rivera-Olvera) <strong>&#8220;Education and Earnings in Arkansas&#8221;</strong> has been published in the <em>Journal of Economic Insight</em>.</p><p>The paper provides the first recent, comprehensive analysis of the economic returns to education in Arkansas using 2024 Current Population Survey data. We estimate returns using multiple methods - including Mincer earnings functions, full-discounting, Heckman selection correction, Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, and quantile regression - and find that education continues to be a strong investment. Each additional year of schooling is associated with about a <strong>7.5% increase in earnings</strong>, with even higher returns for women. We also document an intriguing post-pandemic decline in Arkansas&#8217;s returns to education that contrasts with national trends.</p><p>You can read the published version here:<br><a href="https://journalofeconomicinsight.com/index.php/joei/article/view/1425">https://journalofeconomicinsight.com/index.php/joei/article/view/1425</a></p><p>An open version is also available on my website:<br><a href="https://hpatrinos.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/patrinos_rivera-olvera.pdf">https://hpatrinos.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/patrinos_rivera-olvera.pdf</a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Education Still Pays]]></title><description><![CDATA[New publication on the returns to education in Arkansas]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/education-still-pays</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/education-still-pays</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:57:19 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span>How much does education pay in Arkansas? In a new paper with Angelica Rivera-Olvera, we provide the first recent systematic analysis of the returns to education in the state using 2024 Current Population Survey data. The message is clear: education remains a strong investment for Arkansas workers.</span></p><p><span>This is especially important because educational attainment in Arkansas has increased substantially over time. Despite this expansion in the supply of educated workers, the labor market continues to reward additional schooling. Each additional year of education is associated with an average 7.5 percent increase in earnings, rising to 8.6 percent for women. University education pays even more, with estimated returns of 8.9 percent overall and 10.8 percent for women. Using a full-discounting approach, we estimate a private return to university education of 10.3 percent.</span></p><p><span>There is one warning sign: returns to education in Arkansas have declined since the pandemic, in contrast to national trends. Nevertheless, education still pays&#8212;and pays well. Expanding access to high-quality postsecondary education can raise earnings, strengthen Arkansas&#8217;s workforce, and contribute to the state&#8217;s long-term economic growth.</span></p><p><em><span>Education and Earnings in Arkansas -- </span></em><span>This paper presents the first recent systematic analysis of the returns to education in Arkansas using 2024 Current Population Survey data. Across methods (Mincerian discounting methods, Heckman&#8217;s two earnings function and full step procedure, Binder-Oaxaca, and quantile regression), education remains a profitable investment, with average returns of 7.5 percent per additional year of schooling and higher returns for women (8.6 percent) than for men (7.5 percent). University education yields even greater rewards &#8212; 8.9 percent overall, 8.1 percent for men, and 10.8 percent for women &#8212; with full discounting estimates placing private returns at 10.3 percent and &#8220;social&#8221; returns at 5.6 percent. Unlike national trends, Arkansas&#8217;s returns have declined since the pandemic, a shift that could dampen incentives for further study. However, the strong and consistent returns, especially for women, suggest that expanding access to and quality of higher education can be a powerful driver of earnings growth, workforce development, and long term economic prosperity. (Patrinos HA, Rivera Olvera A (2026). Education and Earnings in Arkansas. Journal of Economic Insight 52(1), forthcoming).</span></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Real Accountability Means Marrying Standards and Markets]]></title><description><![CDATA[Debates about accountability in education often talk past each other.]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/real-accountability-means-marrying</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/real-accountability-means-marrying</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2026 16:46:40 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span>Debates about accountability in education often talk past each other. Some argue for more testing and standards. Others push for school choice and competition. Both are right &#8211; and both are incomplete.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>As Chester E. Finn, Jr. famously argued, there are four approaches to accountability: compliance (rules and inputs), professional norms (trusting educators), standards (measurement and consequences), and markets (choice and competition). Most systems combine elements of these approaches. But only one combination holds real promise: standards and markets together.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Why? Because each addresses the other&#8217;s fundamental weakness.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Standards-based systems are good at identifying failure. They tell us which schools are underperforming. But they are far less effective at fixing those schools. Decades of reform show that labeling failure does not automatically produce improvement.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Markets, by contrast, create pressure. When families can leave, schools must respond&#8212;or risk losing students and funding. But markets alone are not enough. Without clear, comparable information on school performance, choice becomes guesswork. Parents may choose based on reputation, convenience, or amenities rather than academic quality. That is not accountability; it is uninformed choice.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The lesson is straightforward: standards identify failure; markets force response. On their own, each falls short. Standards without markets reveal problems but cannot fix them. Markets without standards generate choice but risk misinformed decisions and weak accountability. Together, however, they create a system where performance is both visible and consequential.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>This is what real accountability requires: information and incentives. Transparent data allows families to make informed choices. Competitive pressure ensures that schools act on that information. Like the stock market, accountability depends on both accurate information and incentives. Markets require transparent disclosure, so prices reflect real performance, while the profit motive rewards firms that create value. Likewise, standards generate reliable information about school quality, and markets give schools incentives to improve. The result is a system where schools are evaluated on outcomes, families can respond, and institutions have reason to improve.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The bottom line is simple: Accountability = Information (standards) + Incentives (market).</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The challenge for policymakers is not choosing between standards and markets. It is designing systems where the two reinforce each other. Where measurement is credible, choice is meaningful, and failure has consequences.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>What does this imply for today&#8217;s push toward universal school choice? Choice alone is not enough. Without transparent, comparable performance data, choice risks becoming uninformed and inequitable. Universal choice systems need testing &#8211; not as an end in itself, but as the information infrastructure that makes choice meaningful and accountability real.</span></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png" width="469" height="469" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:469,&quot;width&quot;:469,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:204926,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/i/207451448?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9iwY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1534a9c8-5931-43ea-9114-729d34cbfff2_469x469.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Source: Chester E. Finn, Jr. (2022). &#8220;</span><a href="https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/uploads/documents/0817938826_23.pdf"><span>Real Accountability in K-12 Education: The Marriage of Ted and Alice</span></a><span>,&#8221; in W.M. Evers and H.J. Walberg, eds., </span><em><a href="https://www.hoover.org/research/school-accountability-assessment-koret-task-force-k-12-education"><span>School Accountability</span></a></em><span>, 23-46, Hoover.</span></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[COVID-19 Reversed a Decades-Long Decline in the Returns to Education]]></title><description><![CDATA[Our new paper on the impact of COVID-19 on earnings is officially published and available online &#8211; and the findings are striking.]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/covid-19-reversed-a-decades-long</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/covid-19-reversed-a-decades-long</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 09:13:18 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Our new paper on the impact of COVID-19 on earnings is officially published and available online &#8211; and the findings are striking.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>For years, the returns to education in the United States had been quietly declining. Then the pandemic hit, and the trend reversed sharply. When millions of workers faced unprecedented labor market disruption, the economic value of education surged.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The gains were not evenly distributed. University-educated men saw the largest increases &#8212; returns to university education rose by more than 5 percentage points during and after the pandemic. Meanwhile, less-educated workers faced substantially higher unemployment and weaker earnings growth.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The most consequential finding may be this: COVID-19 didn&#8217;t just change who earned more &#8212; it widened the economic divide between higher- and lower-skilled workers. Education didn&#8217;t simply boost earnings; it functioned as a form of protection against one of the largest economic shocks in recent memory.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>The lesson is not new, but the pandemic made it impossible to ignore: education remains one of the strongest investments a person can make. In times of crisis, that value may be even greater than in stable times.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Full paper: </span><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/EJ35UDNN3FFHXDIQPKGR/full?target=10.1080/00036846.2025.2506845"><span>The returns to education over time and the effect of COVID-19</span></a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span>Harry Anthony Patrinos &amp; Angelica Rivera-Olvera (2026), </span><em><span>Applied Economics</span></em><span>, 58:28, 5432&#8211;5444. DOI: </span><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2025.2506845"><span>10.1080/00036846.2025.2506845</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Education Remains One of the Best Investments We Can Make]]></title><description><![CDATA[Our entry in the live Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics.]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/education-remains-one-of-the-best</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/education-remains-one-of-the-best</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2026 08:53:14 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Our entry in the live Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics. We highlight the enduring evidence that education is a powerful form of human capital investment, generating substantial private and social returns.</p><p>Education remains one of the best investments individuals and societies can make. The evidence is remarkably consistent: higher levels of education are associated with higher earnings, better employment opportunities, and stronger economic growth. As George Psacharopoulos and I have argued for many years, the returns to education remain high across countries and over time &#8212; reinforcing the case for investing not only in access to schooling, but also in learning and skills.</p><p>Read the chapter here: <a href="https://link.springer.com/rwe/10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_489-1">https://link.springer.com/rwe/10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_489-1</a></p><p>Reference: Patrinos, H.A., Psacharopoulos, G. (2026). Seventy Years of Human Capital: What We Know and What We Still Need to Learn. In: Zimmermann, K.F. (eds) Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_489-1</p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Learning Pays More Than Schooling]]></title><description><![CDATA[For decades, the economics of education has delivered a remarkably consistent finding: more education leads to higher earnings.]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/learning-pays-more-than-schooling</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/learning-pays-more-than-schooling</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 17:01:54 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;">For decades, the economics of education has delivered a remarkably consistent finding: more education leads to higher earnings. But there is an important question that often gets overlooked. What matters more: how long students stay in school, or how much they actually learn?</p><p style="text-align: justify;">A new review of global evidence suggests the answer is clear. Learning matters enormously - and perhaps even more than years of schooling alone. Drawing on 73 studies from 41 countries, George Psacharopoulos and I find that a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11125-026-09767-x">one standard deviation increase in student achievement is associated with about a 15 percent increase in earnings later in life</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">For comparison, the average return to an additional year of schooling worldwide is about <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0738059326000751">10 percent</a>. In other words, improving what students learn may generate economic benefits that are at least as large as expanding the quantity of schooling.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Historically, education policy focused on access. The challenge was getting children into school. That was the right priority for much of the twentieth century. Today, however, many countries have achieved near-universal enrollment. Yet millions of students complete primary or even secondary school without mastering basic literacy and numeracy skills. This has shifted the policy conversation from schooling to learning. The distinction matters.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Years of schooling are easy to count. Learning is harder to measure. But from an economic perspective, employers reward skills, not seat time. The labor market values what workers can do.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><em>The Evidence Is Remarkably Consistent</em></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The studies reviewed in our paper use a variety of methods. Some exploit admission cutoffs for selective schools. Others use natural experiments, longitudinal datasets, cognitive assessments, or twin studies. Despite the differences in methods and contexts, the results point in the same direction: stronger cognitive skills are associated with higher earnings.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">What is particularly striking is that the relationship holds across countries at different income levels. The earnings premium associated with better learning outcomes is roughly the same in high-income countries as it is in middle-income countries. Improving learning appears to be universally valuable.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><em>Why Skills Matter</em></p><p style="text-align: justify;">One reason is that schooling affects earnings largely through skill acquisition. Several studies show that when direct measures of cognitive skills are included in earnings equations, the estimated return to years of schooling falls. In other words, part of what we have traditionally attributed to schooling is actually the result of learning.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">The message for policymakers is straightforward. Expanding access remains important where children are still excluded from education. But enrollment alone is not enough. Countries should pay equal attention to what students learn while they are in school.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">This means investing in interventions that improve instructional quality, strengthen literacy and numeracy, support teachers, and ensure students master foundational skills. It means measuring success not only by enrollment rates and years of schooling, but also by learning outcomes.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Human Capital Is Climate Policy]]></title><description><![CDATA[Can education help address climate change?]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/human-capital-is-climate-policy</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/human-capital-is-climate-policy</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 29 Apr 2026 12:01:00 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is a question that has long been assumed &#8211; but rarely tested with credible causal evidence.</p><p>In a recent paper published in <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/doi/10.1162/rest_a_01444/120189/Human-Capital-and-Climate-Change?redirectedFrom=fulltext">The Review of Economics and Statistics</a>, with Noam Angrist, Kevin Winseck, and Joshua Graff Zivin, we take this question seriously.</p><p>Using variation from compulsory schooling reforms across 20 European countries, we identify the causal impact of additional schooling on a range of pro-climate outcomes.</p><p>The results are clear:</p><p>&#183; An additional year of schooling increases pro-climate beliefs</p><p>&#183; It leads to more environmentally responsible behaviors</p><p>&#183; It strengthens support for climate policies</p><p>&#183; It increases the likelihood of voting for green parties</p><p>This is important.</p><p>Climate change is not only a technological or regulatory challenge &#8211; it is also a behavioral and political one. Achieving meaningful progress depends on informed citizens, public support for policy, and sustained civic engagement.</p><p>Education appears to shift all three.</p><p>From a human capital perspective, this adds another dimension to the returns to schooling. Education does not just raise earnings or productivity &#8211; it shapes preferences, information processing, and participation in collective decision-making. These are central to addressing global public goods like climate change.</p><p>The implication for policy is straightforward: investments in education can complement traditional climate policies by building the societal foundations for long-run action.</p><p>Read the <a href="https://shorturl.at/9P9gN">paper</a>.</p><p><em>But what does the broader literature say?</em></p><p>In a new review with Diego Ambasz and Anshuman Gupta, we step back and assess the full body of evidence linking human development &#8211; especially schooling &#8211; to environmental outcomes.</p><p>The headline finding is striking &#8211; out of 31 studies:</p><p>&#183; 27 are observational</p><p>&#183; Only 4 use quasi-experimental methods to identify causal effects</p><p>That imbalance matters. Much of what we think we know about education and climate outcomes rests on correlations, not causal inference.</p><p>Substantively, the literature points to a consistent but incomplete pattern:</p><p>&#183; Education is strongly associated with pro-climate attitudes</p><p>&#183; Translating those attitudes into actual behavioral change is much harder</p><p>This gap &#8211; between beliefs and action &#8211; is central to climate policy.</p><p>To organize the evidence, we propose a simple framework:</p><p>&#183; Cognitive channels (knowledge, information)</p><p>&#183; Affective channels (values, preferences)</p><p>&#183; Situational constraints (income, context, incentives)</p><p>Education clearly operates through the first two. But behavior is often constrained by the third. The small number of causal studies suggests that schooling <em>can</em> influence behavior. But the evidence is still thin, and the mechanisms are not fully understood.</p><p>This leads to a more cautious conclusion:</p><p>If education is to play a meaningful role in climate mitigation and adaptation, research &#8211; and policy &#8211; must move beyond correlations and focus on causal pathways and real behavioral outcomes.</p><p>There is still a great deal we do not know.</p><p>Read the <a href="http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2025/Volume45/EB-25-V45-I4-P148.pdf">review</a>.</p><p><em>SustainableED</em></p><p>I will be discussing this work at the <a href="https://annenberg.brown.edu/sustainableed-conference-2026">SustainableED</a> 2026 Conference at the Annenberg Institute at Brown University on May 1, 2026, where I will present <em>A Review of Human Development and Environmental Outcomes</em>.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Educational Freedom and Flourishing]]></title><description><![CDATA[Benchmarking Market-Based School Choice in the United States]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/educational-freedom-and-flourishing</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/educational-freedom-and-flourishing</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 21 Apr 2026 14:32:47 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This project applies the Engaging the Private Sector in Education benchmarking tool across all 50 U.S. states to systematically assess the design of market-based school choice policies.</p><p>Initial findings were presented at the Association for Education Finance and Policy (AEFP), American Educational Research Association (AERA), and Harvard University under the title <em>&#8220;Designing Effective Public-Private Partnerships in Education.&#8221;</em></p><p>Presentation available: <a href="https://hpatrinos.com/2026/04/17/designing-effective-ppps-in-educationdoes-governance-design-matter-more-than-private-provision/">https://hpatrinos.com/2026/04/17/designing-effective-ppps-in-educationdoes-governance-design-matter-more-than-private-provision/</a></p><p>The paper conceptualizes publicly funded school choice as a form of education public-private partnership (PPP) and evaluates whether cross-national differences in performance are driven by institutional design rather than private provision per se. Using structured comparative case analysis and policy benchmarking data, six countries and the fragmented U.S. system are evaluated across four core dimensions: competition, autonomy, accountability, and information.</p><p>Two composite indicators &#8211; alignment (overall policy development) and coherence (consistency across domains) &#8211; are constructed to capture system configuration. Preliminary results indicate that higher-performing systems exhibit both stronger alignment and greater internal coherence, whereas fragmented configurations are associated with more variable outcomes. While descriptive, the analysis identifies systematic patterns consistent with theories of policy complementarity in governance.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Evidence]]></title><description><![CDATA[The returns to education are highest at the margin]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/the-evidence</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/the-evidence</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 08 Apr 2026 20:13:46 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In new work with <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/team/g/george-psacharopoulos">George Psacharopoulos</a>, we compile 191 causal estimates from 145 studies across 54 countries. The headline result is familiar: <a href="https://t.co/u5QCeM8pju">an additional year of schooling raises earnings by about 10%</a> on average.</p><p>The broader causal literature reinforces this interpretation. <a href="https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/causal_educ_earnings.pdf">Across decades of quasi-experimental research</a> &#8211; including the work of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Card">David Card</a> &#8211; estimated returns to schooling are consistently large and often comparable to, or higher than, OLS estimates:<br><a href="https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/causal_educ_earnings.pdf">https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/causal_educ_earnings.pdf</a></p><p>The approximate 10 percent return per year of schooling is not an artifact of bias. It is one of the most robust empirical regularities in economics.</p><p>But the more important finding is distributional &#8211; and methodological.</p><p>In 80% of cases, causal estimates (instrumental variables, IV) exceed conventional OLS estimates. This is not a technical detail; rather, it has two important implications.</p><p>First, it tells us who benefits most. IV identifies the impact of schooling for individuals whose education is changed by policy &#8211; marginal learners &#8211; and for them, returns are especially large.</p><p>Second, it speaks directly to a long-standing concern in economics: bias in OLS estimates.</p><p>If OLS were upward biased due to ability or motivation, we would expect IV estimates to be lower. Instead, we observe the opposite pattern.</p><p>The implication is clear: OLS estimates are not overstating returns; if anything, they may understate them.</p><p><strong>The distribution of returns</strong></p><p>Once we recognize that OLS estimates are broadly reliable &#8211; and likely conservative &#8211; then we can interpret the global distribution of returns with greater confidence.</p><p><a href="https://emerald.com/ijm/article-abstract/44/6/1248/141046">Global evidence from 142 economies</a>, based on 853 harmonized household surveys, shows a right-skewed distribution of returns. This effort holds the constant definition of the dependent variable, the set of controls, sample definition and the estimation method for all surveys; and there are no missing estimates. Education is more likely than not to increase earnings, with a meaningful upper tail.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png" width="605" height="362" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:362,&quot;width&quot;:605,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SWMI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf7a7bbf-0dce-4024-bf94-88a26a6016bf_605x362.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>This matters. It means that:</p><ul><li><p>most individuals experience positive returns</p></li><li><p>some experience very large gains</p></li><li><p>and the expected payoff remains strongly positive</p></li></ul><p>This pattern aligns closely with how individuals make schooling decisions under uncertainty &#8211; and helps explain why demand for education remains strong even when outcomes vary.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Four Education Trends that Countries Everywhere Should Know About]]></title><description><![CDATA[Recently, we reached out to a selected non-random sample of education experts around the world to hear what they considered the most pressing issues facing our sector today.]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/four-education-trends-that-countries</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/four-education-trends-that-countries</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2026 12:07:39 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recently, we reached out to a selected non-random sample of education experts around the world to hear what they considered the most pressing issues facing our sector today. Surprisingly, they all said that little has changed in terms of our most common challenges. What was changing, they agreed, were the innovative ways that the global community has begun tackling them. (See our previous posts <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/education/18561">here</a> and <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/education/lessons-education-sector-covid-19-pandemic">here</a> and <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/education/four-biggest-problems-facing-education-and-four-trends-could-make-difference">here</a> and <a href="https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fblogs.worldbank.org%2Feducation%2Flessons-education-sector-covid-19-pandemic&amp;data=05%7C01%7C%7Cc851bd81ee5447dd776d08db9cff160f%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638276391638648961%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=N9T3U3kLZhcHstoHQfHScgfSaNQs%2FrUbLUJifu19nmc%3D&amp;reserved=0">here</a>.)</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>1. Using AI to Improve the Quality of Education</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Artificial intelligence (AI) presents both a transformative opportunity and a profound challenge. On the one hand, AI can help address chronic constraints (large classes, shortages of qualified teachers, and limited access to high-quality learning materials) by personalizing instruction, supporting formative assessment, and assisting teachers with lesson planning and feedback. Adaptive learning systems can tailor content to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590291125008447">individual student needs</a>, helping close learning gaps more efficiently than traditional one-size-fits-all approaches. On the other hand, without thoughtful integration, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/next-great-divergence-how-ai-could-split-the-world/">AI risks widening inequalities</a>. Schools with connectivity, devices, and trained staff may benefit, while marginalized communities fall further behind. Moreover, governance frameworks for <a href="https://hai.stanford.edu/news/privacy-ai-era-how-do-we-protect-our-personal-information">data protection, ethical use, and quality assurance</a> are often underdeveloped. If education systems fail to proactively shape how AI is adopted &#8211; investing in infrastructure, teacher training, and regulatory safeguards &#8211; they risk becoming passive consumers of external technologies that may not align with national curricula, languages, or cultural contexts. Therefore, the way systems engage with AI today will significantly influence both equity and learning outcomes in the years ahead.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>2. Failure to Achieve Foundational Literacy at the Right Age</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The inability of many children to read with comprehension by the <a href="https://www.edweek.org/leadership/reading-scores-fall-to-new-low-on-naep-fueled-by-declines-for-struggling-students/2025/01">end of the early primary grades</a> represents a foundational <a href="https://boldscience.org/the-economist-tackling-the-global-learning-crisis/">crisis</a> &#8211; and one that is deeply <a href="https://www.unesco.org/gem-report/en/publication/equity-and-access">unequal</a>. This challenge not only differs sharply between low-, middle-, and high-income countries, but also within them, disproportionately affecting disadvantaged populations. The inequity dimension permeates all four themes: gaps in access, quality, resources, and learning conditions reinforce one another, widening disparities at every stage of the system. Literacy is not merely another subject; it is the <a href="https://readingpartners.org/the-importance-of-literacy/#:~:text=With%20strong%20literacy%20skills%2C%20students,%2C%20and%20sight%2Dword%20reading.">gateway skill</a> upon which nearly all subsequent learning depends. When students do not master reading early, they struggle to access content in mathematics, science, and other disciplines, leading to cumulative learning deficits that become increasingly difficult and costly to remediate. Research consistently shows that <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2713445/">early grade reading proficiency strongly predicts later academic achievement</a>, school completion rates, and even long-term economic prospects. In low- and low/middle-income contexts, factors such as overcrowded classrooms, instruction in languages children do not speak at home, insufficient learning materials, and limited early childhood education exacerbate the problem. The long-term societal implications are severe: cohorts of youth may leave school functionally illiterate, constraining workforce productivity, civic participation, and national development. Addressing foundational literacy is therefore not only an educational priority but also a social and economic imperative.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>3. Inadequate Supply of High-Quality Teachers</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Teachers are the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-025-05700-3">most influential school-based factor</a> affecting student learning. Yet many countries face acute <a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/education-at-a-glance-2025_1c0d9c79-en/full-report/how-severe-are-teacher-shortages-across-countries_781f4a97.html">shortages</a> of qualified educators, particularly in <a href="https://edworkingpapers.com/ai24-972">rural</a> and disadvantaged areas. Even where teacher numbers are expanding, preparation and ongoing professional development often lag behind. This happens more in low-income countries. In some systems, teachers enter classrooms with limited subject mastery, insufficient pedagogical training, and minimal mentoring support. High <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/state-data-shows-k-12-teacher-absences-surged-post-pandemic/">absenteeism</a>, low morale, and weak accountability structures can further erode effectiveness. Without a strong teaching workforce, investments in curriculum reform, technology, or infrastructure are unlikely to yield meaningful improvements in learning outcomes. Furthermore, inequitable teacher distribution means that the most vulnerable students are often taught by the least experienced or least prepared staff, reinforcing cycles of disadvantage. Strengthening teacher recruitment, preparation, support, and career pathways is therefore central to improving both quality and equity in education systems.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>4. Weak or Nonexistent Accountability</strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Effective governance underpins all other reforms. When governance structures are weak &#8211; characterized by unclear roles and responsibilities, limited accountability, insufficient data systems, and vulnerability to political interference &#8211; education systems struggle to translate policy into practice. Poor financial management can lead to misallocation of scarce resources, while weak monitoring and evaluation hinder evidence-based decision-making. In some contexts, decentralization has occurred without adequate capacity at local levels, resulting in inconsistent implementation and oversight, and inequity in the distribution of education outcomes. Corruption, patronage-based hiring, and opaque procurement processes can further undermine system integrity. Without strong governance, even well-designed reforms in literacy, teacher development, or technology integration may fail to scale or sustain impact. <a href="https://fordhaminstitute.org/national/commentary/next-20-years-turning-successful-education-reforms-improve-student-outcomes">Robust accountability frameworks</a> (grounded in transparency, accountability, reliable data, and stakeholder engagement) are essential to ensure that resources are used effectively and that reforms genuinely improve learning for all students.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">What struck us most in these conversations is not that these problems persist, but that we now understand them better than ever. We know what works: early literacy, strong teachers, accountability, and increasingly, the careful use of technology. The challenge is not diagnosis; rather, it is implementation, at scale, and with equality of opportunity at the center. The systems that succeed will be those that treat learning not as an average outcome, but as a distribution, and commit to lifting the bottom as much as the top.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">********************</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><em>Eduardo Velez is former World Bank Education Sector Manager for East Asia and the Pacific and for Latin American and the Caribbean, and many other posts. He has held teaching positions at Georgetown University, Kobe Universitym, and Peking University. Has published ten books and 100 articles in professional journals and research reports.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Education Pays]]></title><description><![CDATA[And Now We Know It&#8217;s Causal]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/education-pays-919</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/education-pays-919</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2026 15:35:38 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For years, a familiar critique has shadowed one of the most robust findings in economics: people with more education earn more.</p><p>Yes &#8211; but is it causal?</p><p>Do schools actually raise earnings? Or are more able, more motivated individuals simply more likely to stay in school?</p><p>In a new paper with George Psacharopoulos, published in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2026.103565">International Journal of Educational Development</a>, we revisit this question using the best available global evidence. The conclusion is unambiguous: Education raises earnings &#8211; and the effect is large.</p><p><strong>The core result: 10% per year</strong></p><p>We compile 191 estimates from 145 studies across 54 countries, focusing on quasi-experimental research designs that isolate causal effects. Across this global evidence base, the finding is strikingly consistent: An additional year of schooling increases earnings by about 10 percent.</p><p>This aligns with decades of research &#8211; but now rests on stronger causal foundations. For policymakers, this matters. It means education is not just correlated with growth &#8211; it drives it.</p><p><strong>A surprising pattern: causal estimates are often higher</strong></p><p>One of the most interesting findings is methodological. In about 80 percent of cases, causal estimates (instrumental variables, or IV) exceed conventional OLS estimates. This runs counter to a common assumption that standard estimates overstate returns due to selection bias. Why does this happen?</p><p>Causal methods identify the impact of schooling for individuals whose education decisions are influenced by policy &#8211; such as compulsory schooling laws, school construction, or financial support. These individuals are not random. They are typically constrained learners:</p><p>&#8226;&#9;Students from low-income families</p><p>&#8226;&#9;Those in rural or underserved areas</p><p>&#8226;&#9;Individuals on the margin of dropping out</p><p>And for them, the payoff to education is especially high.</p><p>Where returns are highest: the development gradient</p><p>The data also reveal a clear global pattern. The gap between causal (IV) and conventional (OLS) estimates is largest in low- and middle-income countries.</p><p>This reflects a simple economic reality. The return to an additional year of schooling is highest where education is least accessible.</p><p>The implication is direct: expanding access in lower-income settings is not just socially desirable; it is high-return economic policy.</p><p>Education expansions disproportionately benefit those who would otherwise be excluded. As access increases, the new entrants are typically individuals facing financial, geographic, or institutional constraints; and they experience the largest gains. This promotes both efficiency (higher aggregate earnings) and equity (greater gains for disadvantaged groups). Few policy interventions achieve both simultaneously. Education does.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png" width="646" height="581" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:581,&quot;width&quot;:646,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:31539,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/i/191877725?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Y0-p!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9217687-50a6-4328-991a-ec40bca2fede_646x581.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Policy implications</strong></p><p>The policy message is clear. First, the causality debate is largely settled: education increases earnings. Second, the highest returns come from bringing new learners into the system, including low-income students, rural populations, and first-generation learners. Third, completion maters. Returns depend on progression through key levels, especially secondary and tertiary education.</p><p>Finally, education should be understood as core economic policy. By raising skills and productivity, it drives job creation, higher wages, and long-term growth.</p><p>After decades of research, using the best causal evidence available, the conclusion is straightforward. Education is one of the highest-return investments societies can make; especially when it reaches those who need it most.</p><p>__________</p><p>Reference:</p><p>Patrinos, H.A., &amp; Psacharopoulos, G. (2026). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2026.103565">Causal returns to education</a>. International Journal of Educational Development, 122.</p><p>DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2026.103565">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2026.103565</a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Department of Education Reform February 2026 Newsletter]]></title><description><![CDATA[Department of Education Reform February 2026 Newsletter]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/department-of-education-reform-february</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/department-of-education-reform-february</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:22:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Department of Education Reform February 2026 Newsletter<br><br><a href="https://t.co/5W2K501vRE">https://shorturl.at/MLCm</a></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png" width="1060" height="773" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:773,&quot;width&quot;:1060,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:658565,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/i/189399007?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tYtk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6865149d-9411-4361-912c-b029f1403a86_1060x773.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><a href="https://t.co/5W2K501vRE">E</a></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[New in The 74: Arkansas’ 3rd-grade retention is coming — but retention isn’t the reform]]></title><description><![CDATA[Arkansas is about to implement a high-stakes element of the Right to Read Act: beginning this summer, third-graders who aren&#8217;t reading proficiently can be retained.]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/new-in-the-74-arkansas-3rd-grade</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/new-in-the-74-arkansas-3rd-grade</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 21 Feb 2026 15:11:43 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Arkansas is about to implement a high-stakes element of the Right to Read Act: beginning this summer, third-graders who aren&#8217;t reading proficiently can be retained. That reality is creating understandable anxiety for families and educators.</p><p>In my new <em>The 74</em> analysis, I make a simple, evidence-based point: <strong>retention by itself won&#8217;t raise literacy.</strong> What moved outcomes in places like Mississippi (and what matters in other states&#8217; evidence too) is the <strong>full package</strong>&#8212;early identification, structured interventions, tutoring/coaching, and sustained support <strong>before and after</strong> any promotion decision. Retention can be a policy lever, but the <em>supports</em> are the mechanism.</p><p>If you&#8217;re tracking science-of-reading reforms, promotion gates, and what it takes to make them work in practice, this is the core takeaway: <strong>don&#8217;t debate retention in isolation&#8212;debate the capacity and resourcing around it.</strong></p><p>Read the piece here: <strong><a href="https://www.the74million.org/article/arkansas-will-soon-hold-back-kids-who-cant-read-but-that-alone-is-not-enough/">Arkansas Will Soon Hold Back Kids Who Can&#8217;t Read. But That Alone Is Not Enough</a></strong><a href="https://www.the74million.org/article/arkansas-will-soon-hold-back-kids-who-cant-read-but-that-alone-is-not-enough/"> </a>(The 74, Feb. 19, 2026).</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Launching the Human Capital & Education Returns Lab]]></title><description><![CDATA[For decades, economists have known a simple but powerful fact: education is one of the best investments a person &#8212; or a country &#8212; can make.]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/launching-the-human-capital-and-education</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/launching-the-human-capital-and-education</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 16 Feb 2026 14:34:55 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For decades, economists have known a simple but powerful fact: education is one of the best investments a person &#8212; or a country &#8212; can make.</p><p>Yet today, public debate often suggests the opposite. We hear that college is no longer worth it, that schooling has lost value, or that education systems produce credentials but not skills. Policymakers face a real dilemma: how much should governments invest in education, and where should those resources go?</p><p>Answering those questions requires measurement &#8212; not anecdotes.</p><p>This week we launched the <strong>Human Capital and Education Returns (HCER) Lab</strong> at the University of Arkansas Department of Education Reform. The lab&#8217;s purpose is straightforward: to measure the economic returns to education clearly, rigorously, and in ways policymakers can actually use.</p><p>Learn more: <a href="https://edre.uark.edu/humancapitaledreturns.php">HCER</a></p><h3>What we study</h3><p>At its core, the lab focuses on a central economic question:</p><p><strong>What is the payoff to learning?</strong></p><p>We estimate both private and social returns to education &#8212; how schooling affects wages, employment, productivity, growth, and mobility &#8212; using causal methods and large-scale datasets from the United States and around the world.</p><p>Our work combines:</p><ul><li><p>U.S. administrative and survey data</p></li><li><p>International assessments and global datasets</p></li><li><p>Natural experiments and policy reforms</p></li><li><p>Comparative policy analysis across countries and states</p></li></ul><p>The objective is not just academic precision. It is policy clarity.</p><p>Governments routinely make multi-billion-dollar education decisions without clear estimates of economic impact. We aim to change that.</p><h3>Why this matters now</h3><p>Three major developments make measurement more important than ever.</p><p><strong>1. Post-pandemic learning losses</strong><br>Students lost years of skills. The real policy question is not only how much learning declined &#8212; but what that means for lifetime earnings and national productivity.</p><p><strong>2. The rise of AI and skill-biased change</strong><br>Technological change is increasing the value of cognitive and adaptable skills. Education systems must know which investments generate real human capital.</p><p><strong>3. Fiscal pressure</strong><br>Finance ministries increasingly ask: <em>which education policies deliver measurable economic returns? </em>Education is no longer funded on good intentions alone.</p><h3>Our research agenda</h3><p>The HCER Lab focuses on evidence that directly informs policy decisions:</p><ul><li><p>Returns to education in Arkansas and the United States</p></li><li><p>Global causal returns to schooling</p></li><li><p>Long-term economic impacts of learning loss</p></li><li><p>Human capital measurement and benchmarking</p></li><li><p>Education finance and public-private partnerships</p></li><li><p>Skills, technology, and productivity</p></li></ul><p>We are fortunate to have economist <strong>George Psacharopoulos</strong> as advisor and a strong research team including Temurbek Rakhmatov, Xueshen Shi, Angelica Rivera, and Kristen Scott.</p><h3>A simple idea</h3><p>The economics of education is ultimately empirical. Education has always been a powerful investment. Our task is to quantify it &#8212; and make the evidence usable.</p><p>If you are working on related topics &#8212; policy evaluation, education finance, labor markets, or human capital &#8212; we welcome collaboration.</p><p>More information: <a href="https://edre.uark.edu/humancapitaledreturns.php">HCER</a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Department of Education Reform]]></title><description><![CDATA[Impact in Arkansas]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/department-of-education-reform</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/department-of-education-reform</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 05 Feb 2026 14:55:49 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Our latest newsletter highlights how the Department of Education Reform, Arkansas Teacher Corps, and the Office for Education Policy are making a real impact across Arkansas.</p><p>This month&#8217;s spotlight features new research on the returns to education in Arkansas, updates on teacher pipeline initiatives, evidence-based policy work with schools and state leaders, and upcoming lectures and events. We also share recent studies, expert commentary, and stories of schools and educators improving outcomes for students.</p><p>&#128236; Read the full newsletter and subscribe for future updates: https://shorturl.at/sUaae</p><p>Thank you for staying connected to our work.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Can More Schooling Change How We Act on Climate? ]]></title><description><![CDATA[Our New Review Says...]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/can-more-schooling-change-how-we</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/can-more-schooling-change-how-we</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 10 Jan 2026 17:02:36 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m pleased to share a new paper, co-authored with Diego Ambasz (World Bank) and Anshuman Gupta (World Bank):</p><blockquote><p><strong>&#8220;<a href="http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2025/Volume45/EB-25-V45-I4-P148.pdf">A review of human development and environmental outcomes</a>&#8221;</strong><br><em>Economics Bulletin</em>, Volume 45, Issue 4, pp. 1687&#8211;1709<br>Published December 30, 2025</p></blockquote><p>This post summarizes what we did, what we found, and why it matters for education and climate policy.</p><p>There is now a substantial literature on how climate and environmental conditions affect human development. Much less is known about the reverse channel:</p><blockquote><p><strong>Can education itself help mitigate climate change and improve environmental outcomes?</strong></p></blockquote><p>Policymakers often assume that more schooling or more climate education will automatically produce greener attitudes and behaviors. We wanted to know:</p><ol><li><p>What does the empirical evidence actually show?</p></li><li><p>How much of it is causal, rather than just correlational?</p></li><li><p>Through which pathways might education influence environmental outcomes?</p></li></ol><p>We therefore reviewed 31 studies that link formal schooling to environmental attitudes, behaviors, and outcomes, and we organized them using a simple conceptual framework and a focus on identification strategies.</p><ul><li><p>Most existing studies are observational and document positive correlations between education and pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors.</p></li><li><p>Only 5 of 31 studies (about 16%) use quasi-experimental methods to identify a causal effect of schooling on climate-related outcomes.</p></li><li><p>The bottom line from these causal studies is nuanced:</p><ul><li><p>Education clearly shifts beliefs and attitudes in a pro-climate direction.</p></li><li><p>It is much harder to find consistent effects on actual behaviors (energy use, willingness to pay environmental taxes, concrete household actions).</p></li></ul></li></ul><p>In other words, schooling can move minds more reliably than it moves behaviors.</p><h2>Towards a conceptual framework</h2><p>We anchor the review in a conceptual framework with three sets of pathways from education to environmental outcomes:</p><ol><li><p>Cognitive pathways</p><ul><li><p>Schooling increases reasoning, information processing, and knowledge.</p></li><li><p>This can raise climate literacy and the ability to understand complex trade-offs and policies.</p></li></ul></li><li><p>Affective pathways</p><ul><li><p>Education shapes values, norms, concern, and identity.</p></li><li><p>People may care more about long-run environmental risks after schooling, or feel more personal responsibility.</p></li></ul></li><li><p>Situational pathways</p><ul><li><p>Education raises earnings and access to resources, expanding the feasible set of pro-environment behaviors (solar panels, efficient appliances, low-carbon transport choices).</p></li><li><p>But higher incomes can also increase consumption and emissions.</p></li></ul></li></ol><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png" width="870" height="417" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:417,&quot;width&quot;:870,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" title="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Qwss!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F586b048e-e6da-4e79-9b37-b0fa9036f55e_870x417.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>This framework &#8211; with cognitive, affective, and situational channels &#8211; helps explain why we observe strong correlations in some domains, mixed effects in others, and why rigorous causal evidence is essential.</p><h2>What we know from causal evidence</h2><p>The most promising identification strategy in this area uses compulsory schooling laws as natural experiments.</p><p>These laws force some cohorts to stay longer in school than others, creating exogenous variation in education that can be used to estimate causal effects on later-life outcomes.</p><p>1. England and Wales (Powdthavee 2021)</p><ul><li><p>Uses the 1972 raising of school-leaving age (ROSLA) from 15 to 16.</p></li><li><p>Finds that extra schooling reduces climate skepticism and makes individuals more willing to change behavior for the environment.</p></li><li><p>But it finds little evidence of changes in concrete pro-environment behaviors.</p></li></ul><p>2. Europe</p><ul><li><p>Meyer (2015) exploits changes in compulsory schooling across 14 European countries.</p><ul><li><p>Finds a positive causal effect of education on several pro-environment behaviors for most outcomes.</p></li></ul></li><li><p><a href="https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/doi/10.1162/rest_a_01444/120189/Human-Capital-and-Climate-Change?redirectedFrom=fulltext">Angrist et al. (2024)</a> extend this to pro-climate beliefs, behaviors, policy preferences, and voting.</p><ul><li><p>Using an IV design with compulsory schooling reforms, they show that additional schooling raises pro-climate beliefs, increases environmentally responsible behaviors, and boosts green voting.</p></li></ul></li></ul><p>3. Thailand and the Philippines (Chankrajang &amp; Muttarak 2017; Hoffmann &amp; Muttarak 2020)</p><ul><li><p>Education (instrumented with teacher supply and schooling laws) improves knowledge-based environmental actions, but has limited impact on cost-saving behaviors (like conserving energy or paying environmental taxes).</p></li><li><p>Using PSM, additional schooling is associated with higher pro-environmental knowledge and modest behavior changes, but evidence is non-causal.</p></li></ul><p>Taken together, these studies suggest:</p><ul><li><p>Education clearly shifts beliefs and attitudes toward recognizing climate risks and supporting pro-environment policies.</p></li><li><p>Behavioral responses are more fragile and context-dependent.</p></li><li><p>We still have very little causal evidence.</p></li></ul><h2>Policy implications</h2><p>Three main messages emerge for policymakers working at the intersection of education and climate:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Education is a meaningful climate lever </strong>&#8211; but not a magic bullet.</p></li><li><p><strong>Behavior change requires more than awareness.</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>We need more causal work</strong>.</p></li></ol><p>The climate crisis is often framed in terms of technologies, taxes, and treaties. Our review suggests that human capital &#8211; and specifically schooling &#8211; belongs in the same conversation. Education shapes how people understand climate risks, which policies they support, and in many cases how they vote and behave.</p><p>Full paper (open access):<br><a href="http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2025/Volume45/EB-25-V45-I4-P148.pdf">http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2025/Volume45/EB-25-V45-I4-P148.pdf</a></p><p>Co-authors:<br>Diego Ambasz (World Bank)<br>Anshuman Gupta (World Bank)<br>Harry A. Patrinos (University of Arkansas)</p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Can Tutoring—and Technology—Finally Solve Bloom’s Two Sigma Problem?]]></title><description><![CDATA[My blog on Getting Smart]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/can-tutoringand-technologyfinally</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/can-tutoringand-technologyfinally</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 25 Nov 2025 17:38:10 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul><li><p><strong>The blog demonstrates how online tutoring has evolved into a scalable, cost-effective solution for improving learning outcomes, even in challenging contexts like wartime Ukraine.</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>Blended learning amplifies teachers&#8217; efforts, bridging gaps in areas with teacher shortages and combining technology with human instruction for maximum impact.</strong></p><p></p><p>https://www.gettingsmart.com/2025/11/25/can-tutoring-and-technology-finally-solve-blooms-two-sigma-problem/</p></li></ul>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[University of Arkansas education reform department marks 20 years of impact]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Department of Education Reform at the University of Arkansas is celebrating its 20th anniversary this month.]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/university-of-arkansas-education-09a</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/university-of-arkansas-education-09a</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 20 Nov 2025 16:10:17 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://edre.uark.edu/">The Department of Education Reform</a> at the University of Arkansas is celebrating its 20th anniversary this month. Last week, two faculty members from the department joined Ozarks at Large&#8217;s Matthew Moore in the Bruce and Ann Applegate News Studio 2 to discuss the beginnings, the impact and the future of their work.</p><p>You can hear the whole interview with me and Patrick Wolf here: https://www.kuaf.com/show/ozarks-at-large/2025-11-19/university-of-arkansas-education-reform-department-marks-20-years-of-impact</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png" width="1050" height="1612" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1612,&quot;width&quot;:1050,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1263725,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/i/179468877?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!D7WD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6c9bbe94-6fa8-48d9-977a-47bed3999430_1050x1612.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Arkansas a model for evidence-based education reform]]></title><description><![CDATA[Arkansas a proving ground for reform]]></description><link>https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/arkansas-a-model-for-evidence-based</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://harryapatrinos.substack.com/p/arkansas-a-model-for-evidence-based</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Harry A. Patrinos]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2025 14:29:01 GMT</pubDate><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My op-ed in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette:</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2025/nov/17/arkansas-a-model-for-evidence-based-education/">Arkansas a model for evidence-based education reform</a>: Arkansas a proving ground for reform</strong></p><p>Twenty years ago, the University of Arkansas launched the Department of Education Reform (EDRE) with the bold vision of using research to transform how education policy is designed and delivered. Two decades later, Arkansas has become a national proving ground for what is possible when evidence, policy and community align for students.</p><p>The Times of India recently reported, &#8220;Arkansas has become one of America&#8217;s most consequential education experiments.&#8221; For the world to be taking note of the innovation in Arkansas shows just how far the state has come and how much it has to teach the rest of the country.</p><p>The timing couldn&#8217;t be more crucial. The latest National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) results show that high school students&#8217; reading and math scores are the lowest in over 20 years, signaling a national education crisis with severe economic consequences. This signals not just an education crisis, but an economic one. These students represent the future workforce, and as an economist, these results alarm me. Decades of research show that lower academic achievement translates into slower economic growth. Less schooling means lower future earnings. When our students struggle, our state and our nation feel the consequences.</p><p>Yet amid these challenges, Arkansas offers a blueprint for hope. Through evidence-based policymaking and bold reforms, Arkansas has embraced reforms like the 2023 LEARNS Act. Arkansas has raised teacher pay, expanded literacy coaching and empowered families with school choice.</p><p>A key driver of Arkansas&#8217; reform efforts has been the EDRE, which has supported the state&#8217;s education transformation by producing rigorous, policy-focused research highlighting the effects of initiatives like school choice and teacher workforce improvements.</p><p>Teacher workforce research from EDRE informed the design of key components of the LEARNS Act, directly shaping initiatives that raised the minimum teacher salary to $50,000 and introduced targeted strategies to improve early literacy and expand school choice. EDRE&#8217;s analysis of teacher turnover and administrator perspectives has provided policymakers with critical insights into workforce stability and the real-world impact of reform.</p><p>This is what reform looks like when it is grounded in evidence and backed by research. Choice inspires improvement. It drives schools to innovate, engage, and meet families where they are. Combined with teacher reforms and early literacy programs--like ensuring every child can read by Grade 3--Arkansas is building a system that is both ambitious and inclusive.</p><p>Beyond that, our researchers have addressed chronic absenteeism, English-language learning, grading practices, and teacher turnover during covid-19. We&#8217;ve done this not from an ivory tower, but with the conviction that research should serve students, parents, teachers and communities.</p><p>Last month, EDRE celebrated its 20th anniversary with a two-day conference, &#8220;Education Reform Then and Now: A Policy Conference,&#8221; held at the Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art in Bentonville. The event brought together educators, policymakers, researchers, and advocates from across the country underscoring Arkansas&#8217; growing prominence as a hub for national education dialogue.</p><p>The story unfolding in Arkansas is bigger than our state; it&#8217;s about what&#8217;s possible when research and action are in partnership. The next 20 years will test our resolve as a nation, and Arkansas is showing how to lead with courage, evidence and impact.</p><p>We must stay focused on what works--data-driven, equitable, and student-centered reform. That is how we ensure our next generation of learners inherit a legacy of progress. Arkansas stands at the center of national attention, not just for what has been done, but for what is possible to be achieved.</p><p><a href="https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2025/nov/17/arkansas-a-model-for-evidence-based-education/">https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2025/nov/17/arkansas-a-model-for-evidence-based-education/</a></p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>